The State’s Report projected a slower growth in the population as compared to the nation, noting a shift to an older age group in the 45-64 range. This was just one data aspect the Report considered as it assessed the State’s underlying demographics. It used demographics to evaluate the population trend, project hospital utilization, and the future of health care needs in NJ.
The Report’s demographic considerations for hospital services were relatively thorough. Yet, like a Wall Street investor purchasing sub-prime mortgages, analysis is based on assumptions that are ultimately best guesses subject to change. This is to say that demographics may determine ‘potential’ community needs but if community factors change outside the assumptions, then demographic conjectures will fall short.
Consider the State has put the legal mechanics in place to empower the Council on Affordable Housing; this will affect the future character of community populations statewide. Add to that a potential national health care policy where everyone has insurance. Two demographic variable modifiers that could change the infrastructure needs of health care dramatically in NJ.
Now consider the area hospitals today. The population didn’t grow significantly since the last census but the type of services and opportunities in medical care have changed, affecting demographic health system interactions. These were hospital operation modifiers that affected each hospital differently based on their management—not their market size.
Valley Hospital is planning a major ‘renewal,’ spending $750 million tax-free dollars on expansion. They already have $250 million in profits sitting in investments. They own a for-profit ambulatory center in Paramus. Their expectations for the future are surely not minor. Apparently they believe the County’s medical needs will expand in contrast to the State’s Report.
According to that Report, Valley Hospital’s Dartmouth Atlas service area is defined as noted in the map below. It encompasses an estimated 2009 population of 201,021 residents, 21% larger than Holy Name Hospital’s service area. Valley Hospital has 20% more beds then Holy Name Hospital and has been a very profitable nonprofit within its current market.
When we insert the 5-mile radius around their facility, their population count rises to 271,696 residents, 38.5% less then Holy Name’s 5-mile radius, 15% less then Englewood Hospital and 48% less then Hackensack Hospital. Remember that the delineated drive time below assumes an average 25 mile per hour speed without consideration for weather, traffic controls or other traffic movement inhibitors.
Valley is about 6 drive miles from the Pascack Valley Hospital site. Englewood, Holy Name and Hackensack are 8+ to 12+ miles away. There is a term, ‘distance decay,’ that is considered within businesses when evaluating potential markets. It refers to the negative effect distance plays on influencing prospective interactions. Based upon that consideration, which opposing NJ hospital will benefit most from the absence of a reopened hospital in Westwood?
Valley Hospital will see volume and profits rise further. Englewood Hospital’s distance will result in its sharing any nominal increased opportunities with Holy Name, Hackensack and hospitals across the NY State border. It’s the kind of reasoning that makes you wonder if the politicians considered what message their opposition sends. Are some NJ taxpayers not entitled to equal health care access—because their health challenges are needed to subsidize Englewood and boost profits elsewhere?
It’s the typical political wisdom that fuels the skepticism of political leadership. For example, Valley Hospital is out front on this opposition, which is about money. Considering 44 politicians were recently arrested for protecting the interests of money handlers, what is the political motivation toward opposing the needs of the Pascack and Northern Valley residents?—”The extraordinary profitability of health-sector monopolies should dictate at least as much vigilance against monopoly in the health care sector as elsewhere in the economy.” (Monopoly Is Not The Answer, by Clark C. Havighurst) Why was it again that State Senator Weinberg and Assemblyman Johnson were opposing?
When what seems obvious is opposed, you need to question. How does denying HUMC North from opening as a smaller facility in Westwood address New Jersey’s health system challenges? Without substantive answers its political rhetoric and a misstep in planning future Bergen County health care needs. Choice will be denied resulting in a lack of NJ competition—raising Bergen County hospital costs even higher—with denied access jeopardizing the lives of ‘at risk’ seniors, children, and people with chronic medical conditions such as asthma and heart disease.
This stuff makes me question Valley’s candor in their presentation at our planning board meetings. Here they want to stop Pascack Hospital from reopening and tell us not to worry about traffic overloading our neighborhoods. They’re expanding and Ridgewood residents are going to pay in higher taxes with our quality of life reduced. Is anybody paying attention?
Comment by Anonymous — September 29, 2009 @ 2:14 PM
The Governor’s race is another example of politics offering empty noise. Drumthwacket hasn’t said a word on this hospital issue. Parsippany held a photo op but discussed no solutions to show any appreciation to the details. The politicians move their lips say little. It doesn’t matter if they’re against or for. How are you to know they realize our needs? No one seems to understand our property tax burden. This hospital must be rocket science to them.
The local Mayor talks about talking to other politicians. If he doesn’t understand its nothing more then puppetry motion to say look I’m involved. I haven’t heard a single politician come out of a meeting with him and say they’ve seen the light. He organized a protest walk to the opposition. How can he say he understands the need? The Council members don’t say anything. Are they waiting on the Mayor?
My father use to say there were two types of actions, voluntary and involuntary. Voluntary action was the manifestation of thought that required the use of a mind to produce specific results. Involuntary action was vocational like breathing or hearing, filling a necessary expectation. Politics are filled with the involuntary actions of attending functions, campaigning and offering words of appeasement. If it wasn’t for lobbyists nothing would get done.
Comment by randoff123 — September 29, 2009 @ 3:28 PM
Success in returning a hospital will be an involuntary action and a lotta luck.
Comment by Wafi — September 30, 2009 @ 3:09 PM
44 and counting!
Comment by boonsfarm — September 29, 2009 @ 3:55 PM
Corzine’s closing in on Christie in the latest polls. Too bad the corruption of Ferriero with his cohort entering a plea deal is going to keep the Democrat integrity DNA front and center. Add a Corzine keeping mum on reopening a hospital and the Democrats will lose Bergen County and the election.
Comment by Ewok — September 30, 2009 @ 7:25 PM
Your drive time isn’t fairly qualified. EMTs rush to a scene with hopes of saving a life. Ambulances will see more 911s as people become concerned with getting to a hospital. We’ll become a high priced taxi. Add that to the speed limit you note and an average travel time at rush hour has other considerations.
On the private side, unless you know a route, drive time could be a lot longer. Traffic conditions and driver stress aren’t noted but will add to traveling time too. There are a lot of factors to getting a patient to a hospital on time. Drive time is just one part to getting to a hospital timely whether its by ambulance or by private means.
Comment by pvEMT — September 29, 2009 @ 4:52 PM
Like to hear Weinberg and Johnson once more. Could they still think their original stance valid?
Comment by LeeLea — September 29, 2009 @ 5:39 PM
With Corzine coming back in the poles he won’t take us for granted. Weinberg will reconsider that as a lieutenant governor she needs to represent all of the state.
Comment by avoter2 — September 30, 2009 @ 1:02 PM
It’s frustrating this DOH decision is going down to the wire. It shouldn’t have gone this long. The maps don’t make an argument to oppose. How could any elected official cite an opposition without something other than a report 18 months old? Maybe Chris Christie left his post too soon.
Comment by McGee — September 29, 2009 @ 8:45 PM
I read your post earlier and took a ride to Valley Hospital from Westwood around 8:30 PM. I started clocking after the tracks near the boro hall. I ticked up 5.9 miles to Valley’s ER. I drove about 30-35 mph on average but stopped for stop signs and lights and it took me about 17 minutes. There’s residential streets all around Valley. If I had hit traffic it would have been longer. Your software is either being generous in its drive time polygon or its analyzing the best route from each starting points. If I’m in an emergency who’s giving me the best route?
Comment by BACCARAT — September 29, 2009 @ 11:39 PM
Try taking the ride from the east side of Harrinton Park and getting stuck at the freight train on Schralenberg.
Our doctor works out of Valley and Hackensack. We need HUMC North to open.
Comment by Ben — October 1, 2009 @ 10:19 AM
These people numbers make it easy to see why each hospital could be successful. It doesn’t explain why Englewood is having difficulty. Unless the demographics are dramatically different around it, which doesn’t seem likely, it doesn’t say much for its leadership.
Comment by Dirk — September 30, 2009 @ 8:40 AM
I want to say – thank you for this!
Comment by lilikindsli — October 4, 2009 @ 11:11 AM